Thursday, October 10, 2013

A graph to digest...

Not able to put up a proper post, just more food for thought. THIS is why so many of us are bearish (and yet we have been confounded by the tardiness of the correction)...


Source : BCA Research

24 comments:

  1. Put some teeth in that space and it looks like the jaws of a great white shark!

    ReplyDelete
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  2. I saw this on twitter and initially thought, meh I've seen this tons of times before. But then I saw who was retweeting it and I sat up straight. This is a BFD.

    I know maybe Canada might be different and oil will save us blah blah blah but when some of the heavyweight macro analysts start validating why these graphs are a problem that should give some solace to the "bear" argument. Some mighty competent and sober people are telling Canada it's drunk.

    ReplyDelete
  3. the methodology used in calculating the canadian DTIR is different, if the same parameters were used Canada would be now where the US was in 2005 - not good but still some more to go - this chart has been around for some time but is not accurate

    ReplyDelete
  4. The chart is accurate, the interpretation is perhaps not. If the corrected DTI is dateline USA 2005, I'm having trouble seeing much positive.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Look at the link below with the adjustment, that chart is not accurate, that is not to say that Canada is in a healthy path but it has still some time to go...
    http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/special/CanadianHouseholdDebt.pdf

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  6. Methodology for calculating household debt for Canada and US is entirely different. I doubt if this comparison is correct.

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